Peter Zeihan, author of the book The Accidental Superpower, on the future of U.S. and global oil prices. The following are some excerpts from his appearance on the TV program Global Public Square.
It used to be that 5 percent of U.S. GDP was imports of energy products. Because of shale, we have gone from importing about 12 million barrels a day to 2 million per day. Within two years, North America is going to be energy independent. The price war OPEC is waging against shale is not really working because shale production costs are now below $50 a barrel. They are cost competitive. So that price war is pushing out Russian Siberian crude or North Slope crude or Albertan or North Sea crude, but not the shale patch.
Oil has long been a global commodity, but the linkage between oil price in the United States and the Middle East is breaking down as North America moves towards formal self-sufficiency. As a result, there will not be a glo