The California we know is the breadbasket of the nation, producing more than two-thirds of the country’s fruits and nuts, including almonds, pistachios, oranges, apricots, nectarines and prunes, and more than a third of its vegetables, including artichokes, broccoli, spinach and carrots. It’s all valued at more than $50 billion a year.
A recent paper by a University of California research team says the state’s $50 billion per year agriculture business could be severely damaged by climate changes.
The research paper, published in the journal Agronomy, warns of more drought and flooding, and that warmer temperatures and more frequent heat waves will diminish nut and fruits yields, including wine grapes. What’s more, changed climate patterns will bring new pests and plant diseases into the region.
Disruption is already evident with some crops, the report says, but is minor compared with what lies ahead. “The increased rate and scale of climate change,” the researchers say, “is beyond the realm of experience for the agricultural community.”
The UC paper tracks closely with the findings from a consortium on long-term impacts convened by the Department of Food and Agriculture in 2013. The state’s Natural Resources Agency also has published a blueprint for dealing with some of the effects of climate change, including on agriculture, citing the likelihood of decreased crop yields, declines in water quality and increased risk of infestation.
The forecasted impact will be felt well beyond California’s borders, according to researchers, noting that changes to crop output “would not only translate into national food security issues, but also economic effects that could disrupt state and national commodity systems.” Indeed, the combination of rising global population and higher biofuel demand means global crop production needs will double by 2050, but California’s ability to contribute to that supply is at risk.
Mike Consol (m.consol@irei.com) is editor of Real Assets Adviser. Follow him on Twitter @mikeconsol to read his latest postings.