By any measure — the amount of steel and concrete, the trillions of dollars of capital to be invested, or its length and breadth — China’s One Belt, One Road infrastructure and real estate initiative is epic. To get a sense of the scale of the projects, a series of maps and infographics is available at Visual Capitalist’s website that detail the initiative’s geographic bounds, the infrastructure needs of the countries the projects span, as well as the capital needs by infrastructure sector.
For investors and companies that want to allocate to these developments, finding the right partner is probably the most important step in the process, and China is actively seeking foreign companies and investors to marry to local companies to help realize its plan.
According to PricewaterhouseCooper’s report, Asia beckons: China’s Belt and Road initiative offers opportunities and challenges, “The challenge of establishing a high level of trust and commitment with local partners who may be new to working with foreign investors” is a top priority for those seeking to invest in the initiative.
PwC notes the scale of such a project is unlike anything most investors and companies have operated with and, as such, they face unique risks and challenges that could dampen returns if they are not managed well. The report identifies four major risk areas companies should consider before engaging in a Belt and Road Initiative project:
- Geopolitical risks: Changes in political regimes or in bilateral relations between countries involved in the initiative during a project’s lifespan.
- Funding risks: Funding gaps and host countries’ varied ability to repay loans, exacerbated by higher capital and debt-service ratios of initiative projects.
- Operational risks: A lack of experience in delivering and managing complex transnational projects, leading to delays and cost overruns.
- Partnership risks: The challenge of establishing a high level of trust and commitment with local partners who may be new to working with foreign investors.
Historical precedent exists for China’s ambitious program.
“China has had a ‘sphere of influence’ for centuries across vast territories and countries, such as during the gold rushes in the U.S., Canada, Australia and elsewhere,” notes Shane Taylor, director, head of Asia Pacific strategy and research, CBRE Global Investors, in a “China expert” roundtable discussion for the April issue Institutional Real Estate Asia Pacific.
“It’s also no coincidence that one of the Chinese government’s recent outward investment thrusts — ‘One Belt, One Road’ — is named after the overland and maritime routes that partly coincide with the old Silk Road,” he adds.
Cushman & Wakefield, meanwhile, in its report Silk Road Rebirth, highlights how real estate will follow infrastructure development along the Belt-Road project.
“At its heart, Belt and Road is a massive infrastructure building and trade expansion initiative,” Cushman & Wakefield notes in its report.
Accompanying the infrastructure build-out will be real estate development in many countries that need modern cities and metropolitan areas to support their growing economies.
Silk Road Rebirth notes, “In particular, we have witnessed growing and significant opportunities for investment or development, including urban housing, office and retail space, industrial parks, manufacturing and logistics hubs around key railway stations and seaports.
Drew Campbell is senior editor of Institutional Investing in Infrastructure.