- June 1, 2009: Vol. 1, Number 6

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Bullish or Bearish?

by Alex Eidlin

Brokers are turning bullish on China, but Nouriel Roubini — an economist who in 2006 predicted a financial crisis was brewing — and people who think like him are outright bearish. Who is right? We live in truly confusing times. The barrage of data coming from government agencies is so complicated and difficult to interpret that one can easily build a case depending on one’s personal affiliation with one of the major camps. Bulls have enough data to see the glass as half full, and bears have enough reasons to question the validity of the numbers that point toward positive developments.

Although China seems to be on a path of its own and showed some signs of emerging stability, I was quite surprised to read some recently published super-bullish reports. Investment bank Macquarie revised its 2009 forecasts, saying growth could now hit Beijing’s target rate of 8 percent. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs proclaimed, “China has already embarked on its path of a growth recovery,

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