Third quarter 2017 raised hopes that this year’s fundraising totals might reach 2016 levels. Quarterly totals had trailed 2016 levels through the first nine months of 2017, but at the end of the third quarter, 2017’s total was only about $7 billion off the 2016 pace. A good fourth quarter could easily have brought the total into the 2016 range. Unfortunately, it appears a good fourth quarter was not in the cards.

Only 19 funds have so far reported a final closing in fourth quarter 2017, raising an aggregate of $13.6 billion. At this time last year, 24 funds were reporting an aggregate fundraise of $19.3 billion. That amount has since increased to $26.0 billion raised by 45 funds, as additional data was captured, and it is very likely the reported total for 2017 also will increase in the next few weeks. But the trend — and the final result — is obvious. 2016 saw fewer funds close and less capital raised than 2015, and 2017 will see fewer funds close and less capital ra