World goods trade recovered strongly in the second half of 2020 and by mid-2021 should be expanding at a double-digit annual pace, according to Oxford Economics. But the rebound is uneven, and this, plus coronavirus-related uncertainties, means risks around the firm’s baseline forecast are large.
The trade rebound varies highly across regions, economies and sectors. Pacific trade has bounced especially robustly, but a more muted upturn is visible elsewhere. Transport and travel remain deeply depressed, weighing on services trade. Goods trade is doing better than services, but sectors such as food and consumer goods are far outpacing capital goods.
Oxford Economics’ forecast looks for world trade in goods and services to rise 8 percent this year after a 9 percent decline in 2020. In an upside scenario featuring faster vaccine rollout, trade could grow by more than 12 percent. But in a downside scenario, with slower vaccine rollout and renewed infection surges, the t
