U.S. commercial real estate sector to be resilient in recovery
Leading U.S. real estate economists expect that while the top-line economic impact of COVID-19 will be much worse than the global financial crisis, U.S. real estate market fundamentals and values will fare much better compared to that era reported UrbanLand in its latest Real Estate Economic Forecast. Among real estate indicators, only retail and hotel are expected to suffer a worse outcome, while most property type returns and market fundamentals will perform much better than they did during the GFC.
Other key findings include:Real estate transaction volumes will fall to $275 billion in 2020, more than 50 percent lower than the 2019 level ($588 billion). While a large decline, forecast transaction volumes over the next three years ($1.175 trillion) show a much healthier capital market environment than that seen during the constrained GFC era ($408 billion in transaction volume from 2008 to 2010). Single-family housing starts will drop to 650