The United Kingdom’s elderly care market is forecast to reach capacity by 2033 without a wave of new development, according to new analysis by Knight Frank.
Knight Frank’s Healthcare Development Opportunities Report 2026 shows that the net supply of U.K. care beds has grown by just 136 over the past year to 480,000, with a 24 percent year-on-year uptick in new home completions offset by supply leakage and the rising deregistration of older stock.
Supply leakage is particularly acute in London. While the West Midlands recorded a net gain of almost 1,500 beds from 2017 to 2025, the U.K. capital saw a decline of 2,000 beds over the same period. In total, Knight Frank’s analysis reveals that care home bed supply has expanded by just 2.4 percent over the past decade, starkly lagging the 16.2 percent growth in the United Kingdom’s over-65 population. Planning approvals granted for 2026 were also lower than those for 2025, signaling a narrowing development
