The aggregate retail revenue growth rate for the nation is 1.7 percent this quarter, 30 basis points higher than it was last quarter, according to REIS. Dayton, the top market on the chart, was among the top five in the first quarter as well. The growth rate for Dayton is 4.3 percent, and it is the only market that has a growth rate above 4 percent this quarter. All the other markets are around 3.6 percent, plus or minus a few basis points. Fairfield County and Syracuse are in the bottom five markets again, which is where they seem to be appearing quite regularly.
The chart above ranks markets by their year-over-year effective revenue growth, which is calculated as the annual change of effective rent multiplied by the occupancy rate. On the left side of the chart is the five markets with the highest effective revenue growth, and on the right side is the five markets with the lowest effective revenue growth. The navy blue bars represent the metro-level growth rates, and the gray and teal bars represent the submarkets with the highest and lowest growth rates in the metro. The underlying shapes, which can be interpreted the same way as a histogram, represent the growth rate distribution for all properties in the metro. To remove outliers and create a useful visualization, REIS, uses data from the 10th to the 90th percentile for the property-level distribution.
Even though the retail sector has some unique property-level distributions with variable property performance, most properties are just average. Aside from unique cases such as Syracuse where there is a relatively smaller sample size, some overall trends are evident. In metros such as Colorado Springs, Fairfield County, and Chattanooga, a small number of properties are performance outliers, but most properties are median-level performers. Other metros such as Pittsburgh and Dayton, have similar cases where properties perform exceptionally well (or the opposite), but most others are performing about average.
