Rebounding global trade has lots of beneficiaries

Global trade is recovering so strongly that infrastructure seems unable to support it, according to Oxford Economics. As shipping costs reach new highs, reports of delays still aren’t subsiding. Nevertheless, most countries manage to fare well in trade, both in 2020 and now that the trade is on the rise again. China was the first to reap the benefits, but strong commodity prices have softened the blow for many vulnerable economies.

Terms of trade have scarred only the oil producers, and even they have now started to recover. Most traditional victims of unfavorable terms of trade during a crisis — developing countries and especially those with high concentrations of exports — have fared well.

Many also have managed to improve their trade balances because the pandemic has put a larger dent in private consumption and imports than in exports. A word of caution is due, given that overreporting exports (to evade taxes) is a known malady of balance of payments and might