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Research - DECEMBER 7, 2018

November sees increase of 155,000 jobs

by Loretta Clodfelter

Nonfarm employment increased by 155,000 jobs in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the unemployment rate was 3.7 percent for the third consecutive month.

The figures for October and September payroll changes were revised to 237,000 and 119,000, respectively. During the past 12 months, the U.S. economy has had an average monthly gain of 209,000 jobs.

In November, the employment categories with significant increases were healthcare (up 32,0000 jobs), manufacturing (up 27,000 jobs), and transportation and warehousing (up 25,000 jobs). Professional and business services added 32,000 jobs, and retail trade increased by 18,000 jobs.

Hourly wage growth over the past 12 months was 3.1 percent, unchanged from the previous month. Market watchers have pointed to the wage growth figures as a key component of Federal Reserve decision making. “A higher number might worry market traders that Federal Reserve officials will be more intent on guiding policy above a neutral range,” Dwight Johnston, chief economist for the California Credit Union League.

It is impossible to know with any certainty what the Federal Open Market Committee will decide at its meeting later this month, but for those reading tea leaves, the November employment news gives some indications the target federal funds rate may not be increased in December.

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