Interest rates, recession risk have investors on edge

During the past year, markets — and investors — have been reeling from a dizzying number of interest-rate hikes by central banks globally to tame inflation. In the United States, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Feb. 1 raised rates for the eighth time in less than a year, increasing the funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.5 percent to 4.75 percent, not far from a desired peak of “above 5 percent.”

Now the ceiling and the lower band of the target rate range are above core inflation for the first time since 2019, according to ING Economics.

In line with recent comments from the FOMC and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, analysts are predicting one or two more tempered 25-basis-point increases soon before peaking.

“At the same time, the [U.S.] economy continues to lose momentum and we suspect inflation will fall quickly from here, on a topping out of housing rents, lower car prices and a decline in corporate pricing power