Expect a non-bank boon as traditional CRE lenders retrench

Expect a non-bank boon as traditional CRE lenders retrench, writes Henri Vuong, head of real estate debt investment research at PGIM Real Estate.

With interest rates close to peaking and a surprisingly resilient occupier market, talk has begun about whether the worst of this real estate cycle is behind us. While cycles turn quickly, before making any major calls, it does pay to take a close look at key indicators.

When assessing the likely direction of real estate debt markets, a primary data point in the United States is the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS). Conducted by the Federal Reserve (Fed), the SLOOS provides insights into the availability of commercial real estate loans from bank lenders, as well as the standards and terms of the debt.

It acts as an early warning system for potential disruptions or significant changes in the debt market, providing a forward-looking view of the internal assessments and anticipations of banks. Therefore, it serv