For those of you who happened to buy a plane ticket in the past few months, you may have noticed a welcome change in price. Airfare was down a good amount in June, compared with the same month in 2022 (–18.9 percent), and compared with May (–8.1 percent), according to consumer price index (CPI) data.
Declining jet fuel costs were the largest contributor to lower fares. Although this benefits consumers, especially during the busy summer travel months, investors may be wondering: Will airlines generate less revenue as a result? Not so fast.
In a recent letter, Goldman Sachs reports there doesn’t appear to be a meaningful relationship between airfare CPI and U.S. airlines’ revenue per available seat mile (RASM). Investors, therefore, need not worry — at least not about falling ticket prices.
Goldman found there isn’t a strong link between annual percent changes in airfare and airline revenue per seat, meaning that even though ticket prices are dropping,