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Research - OCTOBER 18, 2021

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China: Growth will slow further after weakening in Q3

by Andrea Zander

China’s GDP grew 4.9 percent year-over-year (y-o-y) in the third quarter, down from 7.9 percent y-o-y in the second quarter amid COVID outbreaks hampering domestic demand, the slowdown in the property sector, electricity shortages and production cuts in heavy industry, reported Oxford Economics. Estimations are GDP increased only 0.2 percent quarter-over-quarter (q-o-q), much less than the average 0.9 percent q-o-q in first half.

Underscoring the rapid deceleration within third quarter, industrial value-added growth slowed sharply to 3.1 percent y-o-y in September, from 5.3 percent y-o-y in August as electricity shortages and production cuts imposed on heavy industry firms weighed on activity. On the demand side, real household consumption rose 11 percent y-o-y in third quarter, faster than real disposable income growth of 5.7 percent y-o-y. Growth in real retail sales picked up to 2.5 percent y-o-y in September, recovering from 0.9 percent y-o-y in August at the peak of th

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