In the latest edition of BGO’s The Chief Economist, Ryan Severino examines how central bank policy shifts are shaping global bond yields and commercial real estate outlooks. The Federal Reserve in the United States and Bank of Canada both cut rates by 25 basis points, while the Bank of England, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan held steady, signaling divergent policy paths among major economies. Severino notes that the Fed’s end to quantitative tightening could set the stage for future easing, though long-term yields remain sticky. Across regions, subdued growth and moderating inflation point to a gradual decline in 10-year yields, with limited near-term volatility. For commercial real estate, BGO’s models indicate continued cap rate compression as interest rates stabilize — supporting a nascent recovery in global CRE capital markets.
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