The latest edition of BGO’s The Chief Economist reviews global economic conditions as 2025 concludes and outlines expectations for commercial real estate in 2026. The global economy generally performed as anticipated, although more aggressive U.S. trade policy and shifting conditions created additional uncertainty and slowed growth. Inflation continued to ease across most major economies, enabling central banks — except the Bank of Japan — to maintain monetary loosening while fiscal policy stayed broadly supportive. A recession remains unlikely in 2026, with U.S. growth supported by strong investment in artificial intelligence (AI)-related technology and infrastructure. The firm expects inflation to keep declining, international trade to be less of a drag than in 2025, and central banks to approach the end of their easing cycles at different times.
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