As a 2023 recession is likely to be avoided in Europe and inflation is expected to normalize, real GDP is forecast to grow at an annual rate of 1.5 percent and real retail sales at a rate of 1.4 percent per annum between 2024 to 2028, according to a new report from AEW. These growth rates surpass the long-term post-GFC trend, reflecting the favorable conditions of low unemployment rates and consumer purchasing power.
Although the United Kingdom experienced a temporary post-lockdown decline in 2022, the average ecommerce retail share across Europe is expected to rise from 18 percent in 2022 to 27 percent by 2027. By 2027, the Netherlands is expected to emerge as the leading European country in terms of the share of ecommerce.
Continental Europe witnessed a rebound in in-store sales in 2021, with projections indicating stabilization at pre-pandemic levels by 2027. However, U.K. store sales are expected to stabilize at a level 8 percent lower compared to the pre-COVID 201
